Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Reauthorization Act of 2026

(c) Functions. The Under Secretary shall—

(1) conduct and support research to improve understanding of subseasonal to seasonal predictability for temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system variables and applications;

(2) collect and use data to make usable, reliable, and timely foundational forecasts of subseasonal to seasonal temperature and precipitation;

(3) support the advancement of multi-model ensemble forecast systems and forecast verification and evaluation capacity, including by—

(A) developing advanced coupled data assimilation methods using robust Earth system observational data;

(B) developing improved coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble prediction systems;

(C) improving exchanges and interactions between datasets across different models and Earth system observations to increase model accuracy of local relationships between and drivers of ocean, land, snow, and ice observations; and

(D) developing data management strategies to support operations and research activities;

(4) leverage existing research and models from the weather and Earth system enterprises to improve the forecasts under paragraph (2);

(5) accelerate the operationalization of emerging modeling technologies developed to support and assist the cross development of fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal forecast systems, including during collaborations with other agencies and entities; and

(6) determine and provide information on how subseasonal to seasonal temperature and precipitation may relate to—

(A) droughts;

(B) fires;

(C) tornadoes;

(D) hurricanes;

(E) floods, storm surges, and coastal inundation;

(F) heat waves and marine heat waves;

(G) winter storms, snowpack, and permafrost thaw;

(H) sea ice conditions; and

(I) other high impact weather or relevant weather disasters.

(h) Subseasonal to seasonal forecasting pilot projects

(1) Establishment. The Under Secretary shall establish not fewer than 2 pilot projects, in accordance with paragraph (2), within the United States Weather Research Program of the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to support improved subseasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts for—

(A) water management in areas of the United States in which there is—

(i) a high level of drought; and

(ii) a reliance on reservoirs for water storage; and

(B) agriculture in the central United States.

(2) Objectives. In carrying out this subsection, the Under Secretary shall ensure the following:

(A) A pilot project under subparagraph (A) of paragraph (1) addresses key science challenges to improving forecasts and developing related products for water management, including the following:

(i) Improving operational model resolution, both horizontal and vertical, to resolve issues associated with mountainous terrain, such as intensity of precipitation and relative fraction of rain versus snow precipitation.

(ii) Improving modeling of interstate or cross-boundary water movement and storage through rivers, tributaries, and aquifers with relation to water availability.

(iii) Improving fidelity in the operational modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer in mountainous regions.

(iv) Resolving challenges in predicting winter atmospheric circulation and storm tracks, including periods of blocked versus unblocked flow over the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western United States.

(v) Utilizing outcomes from the atmospheric rivers forecast improvement program under section 204 of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Reauthorization Act of 2026 and the precipitation forecast improvement program under section 603 of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 to produce operational tools and services.

(vi) Improving the quality and temporal and spatial resolution of observations and accurate operational modeling of air-sea interactions, and the influence of oceans on subseasonal to seasonal forecasting.

(B) A pilot project under subparagraph (B) of paragraph (1) addresses key science challenges to improving forecasts and developing related products for agriculture in the central United States, including the following:

(i) Improving the quality and temporal and spatial resolution of observations and accurate operational modeling of the land surface and hydrologic cycle, including soil moisture and flash drought processes.

(ii) Improving fidelity in the operational modeling of warm season precipitation processes.

(iii) Understanding and predicting large-scale upper-level dynamical flow anomalies that occur in spring and summer.

(iv) Improving modeling of interstate or cross-boundary water movement and storage through rivers, tributaries, and aquifers with relation to water availability for agriculture.

(3) Activities. A pilot project under this subsection shall include activities that—

(A) achieve measurable objectives for operational forecast improvement; and

(B) are carried out in coordination with the Assistant Administrator for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the Director of the National Weather Service.

(4) Sunset. The authority under this subsection shall terminate on the date that is 5 years after the date of the enactment of this subsection.

(j) Authorization of appropriations. There are authorized to be appropriated $40,000,000 for each of fiscal years 2026 through 2030 to carry out the activities under this section.